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OTTAWA, Nov 30 (Reuters) - The Canadian economy unexpectedly contracted at an annualized rate of 1.1% in the third quarter, data showed on Thursday, avoiding a recession but showing growth stumbling ahead of next week's interest-rate decision. The economy avoided slipping into a technical recession - defined as two consecutive quarter-on-quarter contractions - because second-quarter GDP data was revised up to a 1.4% gain from an initial report of a 0.2% decline, Statistics Canada said. The BoC has remained on the sidelines since July after lifting its benchmark interest rate to a 22-year high of 5% to tame inflation. "The bottom line is that the economy is still sputtering along," said Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Group. Real GDP most likely edged up 0.2% in October after a 0.1% gain in September, Statscan said.

Persons: Doug Porter, Royce Mendes, Bipan Rai, Statscan, Ismail Shakil, Steve Scherer, Dale Smith, Divya Rajagopal, Fergal Smith, Mark Porter Organizations: OTTAWA, Bank of Canada's, Statistics, BMO Capital Markets, Canadian, U.S ., BoC, Desjardins Group, Bank of Canada, Bank, CIBC Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: Canadian, Statistics Canada, North America, Ottawa, Toronto

A help wanted sign hangs in a bar window along Queen Street West in Toronto Ontario, Canada June 10, 2022. Canada added a net 17,500 jobs in October, Statistics Canada data showed. The softer-than-anticipated jobs report follows data out earlier this week indicating that the economy likely slipped into a shallow recession in the third quarter. "This will keep the Bank of Canada pinned more fully to the sidelines, although we still believe that rate relief remains a distant prospect." The services sector gained 10,000 jobs, led by information, culture and recreation as well as healthcare and social assistance.

Persons: Carlos Osorio, Royce Mendes, that's, Paul Smith, Doug Porter, Ismail Shakil, Steve Scherer, Fergal Smith, Nivedita Balu, Dale Smith, Louise Heavens, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Queen, West, REUTERS, Statistics, Reuters, Desjardins, Bank of Canada’s, The Bank of Canada, BoC, P, P Global Market Intelligence, CENTRAL BANK, Canadian, BMO Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, Thomson Locations: Toronto Ontario, Canada, OTTAWA, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Toronto

Amid the economic turmoil of the pandemic, his government racked up Canada's highest ever deficit. Failing to curb spending now risks "the market dictating to you what you have to do with fiscal policy," said Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. "I do think they have to trim the sails a bit," he added. "It's going to be easier to get inflation down if monetary and fiscal policy are rowing in the same direction," Macklem said. Fitch Ratings stripped Canada of its triple-A credit rating in June 2020, citing pandemic spending.

Persons: Justin Trudeau, Doug Porter, Chrystia Freeland, Katherine Cuplinskas, Trudeau, Macklem, Desjardins, Randall Bartlett, Simon Deeley, Robert Asselin, DBRS Morningstar, Julia Smith, Steve Scherer, Fergal Smith, Denny Thomas, Josie Kao Organizations: OTTAWA, Trudeau's Liberal, BMO Capital Markets, Finance, International Monetary Fund, of Canada's, BoC, UK, RBC Dominion Securities Inc, New, Business Council of Canada, Fitch, Moody's Investors, Canada, Thomson Locations: Canada, FES, Germany, High, Ottawa, Toronto

The Canadian central bank had expected productivity, or output per hour worked, to improve as the economy recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic. Instead, it has fallen in eleven of the last 12 quarters, taking it back to its 2016 level. It also stands to add to unit labor costs, a key measure of inflation pressures coming from higher wages. "Our own forecast is that productivity growth will turn around, but that is a risk to the outlook and if productivity growth continues declining it will make it more difficult to get inflation back to target," Macklem said. The central bank has forecast that inflation will return to its 2% target in the middle of 2025.

Persons: Macklem, Derek Holt, tightens, Holt, Dennis Darby, Doug Porter, Fergal Smith, Steve Scherer, Deepa Babington Organizations: Bank of Canada, Reuters Graphics Reuters, BoC, Scotiabank, Federal Reserve, Canadian Manufacturers, Fraser Institute, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: Canadian, Canada, freefall, United States, Toronto, Ottawa

☆ Canadian dollar rallies as jobs data rekindles rate hike bets
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

File photo: A Canadian dollar coin, commonly known as the "Loonie", is pictured in this illustration picture taken in Toronto, January 23, 2015. The loonie was trading 0.4% higher at 1.3620 to the greenback, or 73.42 U.S. cents, after moving in a range of 1.3609 to 1.3689. Money markets see a 44% chance of another BoC rate hike by year-end, up from 36% before the data. The jobs data is "not strong enough to prompt an immediate rethink on the pause, but it's also certainly not soft enough to rule out further hikes", Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, said in a note. The Canadian 2-year yield rose 3.3 basis points to 4.643%, while the gap between it and its U.S. equivalent narrowed by 5 basis points to 29.5 basis points in favor of the U.S. note.

Persons: Mark Blinch, it's, Doug Porter, Fergal Smith, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: REUTERS, greenback, Canadian, U.S, Bank of Canada, BoC, BMO Capital Markets, U.S ., Thomson Locations: Toronto, Canada, TORONTO

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem takes part in a news conference after announcing an interest rate decision in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada April 12, 2023. The central bank hiked rates by a quarter point in both June and July in a bid to tame stubbornly high inflation, which has remained above the bank's 2% target for 27 months. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will deliver a speech and hold a press conference to discuss the decision on Thursday. Reuters GraphicsLiberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's support has sagged amid high inflation as his Conservative rival, Pierre Poilievre, hammered him for fueling inflation with government spending and driving up rates during a housing crisis. "The Bank of Canada's decision to maintain its overnight interest rate is welcome relief for Canadians," Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said in a statement.

Persons: Blair Gable, Doug Porter, Andrew Kelvin, Justin Trudeau's, Pierre Poilievre, Chrystia Freeland, Steve Scherer, David Ljunggren, Fergal Smith, Ismail Shakil, Divya Rajagopal, Nivedita Balu, Mark Porter Organizations: Canada, REUTERS, Rights, Bank of Canada, Wednesday, Governing, BoC, BMO Capital Markets, Canadian, Reuters, TD Securities, Reuters Graphics Liberal, Conservative, Finance, Thomson Locations: Ottawa , Ontario, Canada

The second-quarter reading was far lower than the Bank of Canada's (BoC's) forecast for a 1.5% annualized GDP growth as well as the 1.2% gain expected by analysts. The quarterly slowdown was largely due to declines in housing investment and smaller inventory accumulation as well as slower international exports and household spending, Statistics Canada said. The central bank hiked its benchmark overnight rate to a 22-year-high of 5.0% in July, the tenth increase since March of last year. The high interest rate environment has coincided with falling housing investment, which recorded its fifth consecutive quarterly decrease in the three months ended in June. The housing investment decline was led by a sharp drop in new construction as well as a fall in renovation activities, Statscan said.

Persons: Stephen Brown, Andrew Kelvin, Statscan, downwardly, Doug Porter, Ismail Shakil, Steve Scherer, Dale Smith, Fergal Smith, Nivedita Balu, Mark Porter Organizations: Bank of Canada's, North, Capital Economics, Bank of Canada, Statistics, BoC, Reuters, TD Securities, Money, Canadian, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: OTTAWA, North American, Statistics Canada, Canada

☆ Canada unexpectedly sheds jobs in July, central bank seen pausing hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Ismail Shakil | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Money markets see a 28% chance of a rate hike in September, down slightly from 32% before the data. Money markets see a 60% chance of another rate hike by the end of the year, down from 80% before the data. "I think their (the Bank's) conclusion from this would be that it's probably not a bad idea to pause on the rate hike front," he said by phone. While headline figures indicated some slowness, the average hourly wage for permanent employees - a figure the Bank of Canada watches closely - rose 5.0% from July 2022. "The softer labor market data support our view that the Bank is unlikely to follow through with current market pricing by raising rates further," he said.

Persons: Chris Helgren, Doug Porter, Royce Mendes, Stephen Brown, Statscan, David Ljunggren, Dale Smith, Fergal Smith, Jonathan Oatis, Nick Zieminski Organizations: REUTERS, OTTAWA, Bank of Canada, Reuters, Statistics, The, BMO Capital Markets, U.S ., Desjardins, North, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: Toronto , Ontario, Canada, Canadian, Statistics Canada, North America, Ottawa, Toronto

Inflation is falling, with the headline consumer price index (CPI) measure slowing to 3.0% in June from 4.0% in May. The current debate is whether more rate increases might be needed to ensure "disinflation" continues or if doing more could cause unnecessary damage to the economy. Core PCE was last reported at 3.8% for May. But none of the inflation gauges polled by Reuters - CPI, core CPI, PCE and core PCE - were expected to reach 2% until 2025 at the earliest. A slight majority of economists who answered an additional question, 14 of 23, said wage inflation would be the most sticky component of core inflation.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Jan Nevruzi, Doug Porter, Indradip Ghosh, Prerana Bhat, Maneesh Kumar, Ross Finley, Paul Simao Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Reuters, Fed, NatWest Markets, PCE, CPI, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, U.S

☆ Bank of Canada expected to hike rates as economy outperforms
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Steve Scherer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"We expect the Bank of Canada to raise its policy rate to 5.00% and leave the door open to more hikes this fall." Twenty of 24 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the central bank to lift rates by another quarter of a percentage point and then hold them there well into 2024. Money markets see more than a 70% chance of a rate hike on Wednesday, and are fully pricing in such a move by September. Canada added far more jobs than expected in June, according to data published on Friday. "And let's face it, inflation is still above the Bank of Canada's 2% target."

Persons: Royce Mendes, Tiago Figueiredo, Doug Porter, Porter, Steve Scherer, Fergal Smith, Paul Simao Organizations: OTTAWA, Bank of Canada, BoC, Bank of Canada's, Group, Reuters, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: Canadian, Canada

OTTAWA, June 30 (Reuters) - Canada's economy regained momentum in May after stalling in April, Statistics Canada data showed on Friday, leaving the door open for the Bank of Canada to hike interest rates in July. The economy was unchanged in April from March, missing forecasts, in what economists said was the fallout from a federal civil servant strike in April. Canada's goods-producing sector expanded 0.1% in April, but were offset by a slight decline in the service-producing sector. Figueiredo expects the central bank to raise interest rate by another 0.25% in July. Money markets see a roughly 61% chance of the central bank hiking rates in July.

Persons: Statscan, it's, Doug Porter, Desjardins, Tiago Figueiredo, Figueiredo, Ismail Shakil, Nivedita Balu, Dale Smith, Jonathan Oatis, Philippa Fletcher Organizations: OTTAWA, Statistics, Bank of Canada, Reuters, BMO Capital Markets, Public Service Alliance of Canada, Toronto Stock, Canadian, Thomson Locations: Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Toronto

☆ BoC to raise rates once more by 25 bps in July to 5.00% - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Milounee Purohit | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BENGALURU, June 13 (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada will raise interest rates again in July to 5.00% after a surprise 25 basis point increase last week, according to economists polled by Reuters, who unanimously said the main risk was the central bank might have to do more. The BoC will hike its overnight rate by 25 basis points to 5.00% at next month's meeting, according to 20 of 25 economists in a snap June 8-13 Reuters poll. "When you resume hiking, you don't resume for one 25 basis point hike. All but three of 25 economists forecast the overnight rate to peak at 5.00% or higher, 50 basis points more than was predicted in the last survey published on June 2. Only one of 25 economists expected a rate cut this year, compared with five in the last poll.

Persons: underscoring, Sebastien Lavoie, Lavoie, Doug Porter, Milounee Purohit, Sarupya Ganguly, Ross Finley, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Bank of Canada, Reuters, BoC, Laurentian Bank, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU

☆ Bank of Canada rate-cut bets recede as core inflation proves sticky
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] A sign is pictured outside the Bank of Canada building in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, May 23, 2017. The BoC has made greater progress in slowing inflation than some major peers, including the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. Still, the rise in inflation expectations could be another reason for the Canadian central bank to be cautious about easing rates. The central bank has left its benchmark interest rate on hold for two straight meetings after lifting it to a 15-year high of 4.50%. Those rate hikes have contributed to inflation, by driving up mortgage borrowing costs, but the main aim is to slow the economy.

☆ Bank of Canada seen holding on rates amid cooling inflation, financial turmoil
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Steve Scherer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] Governor of the Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem walks outside the Bank of Canada building in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada June 22, 2020. Last month the Bank of Canada became the world's first major central bank to pause its tightening campaign, leaving its benchmark rate at 4.50%. However, bank failures in the United States and Europe have put central bankers on guard against a widespread credit crunch. All 33 economists polled by Reuters agree that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will hold its key overnight rate steady. "Hiking in this environment would put markets on high alert," said Jay Zhao-Murray, FX Market Analyst at Monex Canada, in a note.

[1/2] Governor of the Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem walks outside the Bank of Canada building in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada June 22, 2020. The Bank of Canada (BoC) last month became the world's first major central bank to pause its tightening campaign. All 33 economists polled by Reuters agreed that the bank would hold its key overnight rate steady. At the same time, the BoC raised its growth forecast for this year to 1.4% from 1.0% in January. The bank cut its 2024 growth forecast to 1.3% from 1.8% in January, and said the economy would expand by 2.5% in 2025.

The economy gained a net 34,700 jobs, almost entirely in the private sector, and the unemployment rate held steady at 5.0%, Statistics Canada reported. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had forecast that a net 12,000 jobs would be gained in March and the unemployment rate would edge up to 5.1%. Since December, the jobless rate has stayed just a notch above the record low of 4.9% observed in mid-2022. Thursday's jobs figures as well as robust GDP data released last week are likely to complicate the central bank's plans to avoid further rate moves. There were 18,800 full-time jobs added in the month, and 15,900 part-time jobs.

OTTAWA, March 31 (Reuters) - The Canadian economy grew more than expected in January and is seen expanding further in February, data showed on Friday, results that are likely to fuel concern by the central bank that inflation has yet to be fully tamed. The economy gained by 0.5% in January, ahead of analysts' forecasts of a 0.3% rise, after contracting 0.1% in December, Statistics Canada said. The Bank of Canada became the first major central bank to pause interest rate hikes in March after increasing them at eight consecutive previous meetings. With the key overnight rate now at 4.5%, the bank said it would not raise rates again if inflation came down as forecast. While inflation has eased, falling to 5.2% in February from a high of 8.1% last year, the economy is expanding faster than the central bank had forecast in January.

OTTAWA, March 8 (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada on Wednesday left its key overnight rate on hold at 4.50%, as expected, becoming the first major central bank to suspend its monetary tightening campaign in the face of an anticipated easing of high inflation. In its statement, the BoC reiterated that it was "prepared to increase the policy rate further if needed to return inflation to the 2% target." The majority of the 32 economists surveyed by Reuters last week said the central bank would likely keep rates on hold through the end of this year, and all of them forecast it would stay on hold on Wednesday. Before the announcement, money markets had expected the policy rate to remain unchanged but were pricing in another tightening by September. The central bank said core inflation measures and short-term inflation expectations still needed to fall in order to return inflation to target.

OTTAWA, Feb 21 (Reuters) - Canada's annual inflation rate eased more than expected in January to 5.9%, data showed on Tuesday, which should allow the Bank of Canada to stay on the sidelines at its next meeting while it lets previous rate hikes sink in. Before the inflation figures were released, money markets saw a 100% chance for another rate increase this year. The bank forecasts inflation to slow to about 3% by the middle of 2023, and to come down to its 2% target next year. Excluding food and energy, January prices rose 4.9% compared with a 5.3% increase in December. The figures show prices coming down faster in Canada than in the United States, where annual inflation gained 6.4% in January.

That prompted the central bank to pause its most aggressive tightening cycle for now, becoming the first major central bank to do so. Traders have already bid up Canadian stocks and the Canadian dollar , dubbed a 'commodity currency', since the news of China reopening surfaced in December. Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, said that for Canada, China's reopening is more a "clear-cut positive" than it would be for other countries with fewer commodities exports. The U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England have since laid the groundwork for a pause as well. Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay said China's reopening will help put a floor under global price levels, potentially offsetting demand destruction as economies slow.

☆ Canada posts hefty job gains, raising chances of another rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Ismail Shakil | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The economy gained a net 104,000 jobs in December, far exceeding analysts' forecasts, while the jobless rate decreased to 5% from 5.1% in November, Statistics Canada data showed. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had forecast a net gain of 8,000 jobs and for the unemployment rate to edge up to 5.2%. Money markets now see a 75% chance of a 25-bp rate increase in January, up from roughly 60% before the data. Employment in the goods-producing sector rose by a net 22,200, mainly in construction. Employees in the private sector rose by 112,000 in December, the largest increase since February, while public sector and self-employed workers were both little changed, Statscan said.

OTTAWA, Dec 21 (Reuters) - Canada's annual inflation rate eased to 6.8% in November as gasoline price rose more slowly, data showed on Wednesday, leaving the door open for another interest rate increase in January. Consumer prices rose 0.1% from October, Statistics Canada said, above analysts' expectations they would be flat. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 5.4% versus a 5.3% gain in October. "Today's data will leave the door open to a 25 basis point rate hike in November," said Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Group. Gasoline prices rose 13.7% after gaining 17.8% in October, largely driven by price declines in Western Canada, Statscan said.

The central bank sets short-term interest rates but longer-term borrowing costs, such as for businesses and some mortgage rates, are determined by the bond market. Canadian bond yields, like U.S. bond yields, have tumbled since October as investors anticipate that the tightening cycle is nearing an end and the central bank is poised to shift to cutting rates next year. Bond yields, along with other measures, such as the strength of the stock market and the currency, help determine financial conditions, or the availability of funding in the economy. Since October, Canada's 5-year yield has tumbled nearly 100 basis points and the Toronto stock market (.GSPTSE) has rallied 11%. "Otherwise, we could be on an inflation and rates roller-coaster for years to come that is biased toward higher average inflation."

Instead, "the onus is still squarely, fully, 100% on the Bank of Canada to tighten," he said. The BoC's policy rate is seen peaking at 4.5% in early 2023. "I think they're going to struggle to see any improvement in the coming fiscal year," said Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, adding that the fiscal measures were working at a slight crosscurrent to monetary policy. The fact that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government depends on the left-leaning New Democrats to pass legislation like the fiscal update helps explain the new spending, said Jimmy Jean, chief economist at Desjardins. ($1 = 1.3499 Canadian dollars)Reporting by Steve Scherer; Editing by Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ VIEW Bank of Canada surprises with smaller-than-expected interest rate increase
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The central bank, in a regular decision, increased its policy rate to 3.75% from 3.25% and has now lifted rates by 350-bp since March. JIMMY JEAN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, DESJARDINS GROUP"It's surprising to see the Bank of Canada going against market and consensus expectations on the dovish side. But I think it says that they're now moving to that place where they're going to acknowledge the impact that they're already seeing. I think it was a close call between 50 and 75 (bps rate hike). Clearly, the Bank of Canada believes it's getting close to the so called terminal rate and I think they wanted to leave a few more options open."

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